Santa Clarita Market Pulse — March 2026: Prices Hold, Inventory Ticks Up
Published March 7, 2026 | Data reflects February 2026 closings and current active listings
The Santa Clarita Valley housing market is entering spring 2026 in a position of guarded stability. Prices have held firm through the winter, and the first meaningful inventory increase since October 2025 is giving buyers slightly more breathing room — though the market remains firmly in seller's territory by any historical measure.
Here's the complete picture.
February 2026 Market Snapshot
| Metric | February 2026 | January 2026 | February 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sold price | $855,000 | $848,000 | $830,000 | +3.0% |
| Active listings | 487 | 439 | 372 | +31% |
| Median days on market | 28 | 34 | 26 | +2 days |
| Sold-to-list ratio | 99.1% | 98.4% | 99.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Months of inventory | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.5 mo |
| Closed sales | 256 | 211 | 264 | -3.0% |
The headline: Prices are 3% higher than a year ago — slower appreciation than the 6–8% we saw in 2023–24, but still appreciation. Inventory is up meaningfully from January, and days on market are shorter than last month, suggesting the spring buyer wave is already in motion.
Mortgage Rate Environment
| Loan Type | Rate (March 7, 2026) | Rate (Feb 1, 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed (conventional) | 6.87% | 7.12% |
| 30-year fixed (FHA) | 6.71% | 6.95% |
| 15-year fixed (conventional) | 6.21% | 6.44% |
| 5/1 ARM | 6.08% | 6.31% |
Rates shown are national averages; your rate will vary based on credit score, down payment, and lender.
Rates have drifted down roughly a quarter point since the start of February — a modest but real improvement. At 6.87% on a $750,000 home with 5% down, a buyer's principal and interest payment is approximately $4,680/month, versus $4,775/month at February's rate. Not dramatic, but meaningful over time.
The Fed held rates steady at its January meeting and signaled two potential cuts in the second half of 2026. Most economists expect 30-year rates to remain in the 6.5–7.25% corridor through at least mid-year.
For buyers: The rate environment is unlikely to improve dramatically in the near term. Waiting for a significant rate drop while prices continue to appreciate is a risky strategy in this market.
Neighborhood Price Breakdown — February 2026
Valencia
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sold price | $975,000 |
| Active listings | 168 |
| Median days on market | 22 |
| YoY price change | +2.6% |
Valencia remains the premium address in the SCV. Homes in top school zones (Valencia High, West Ranch) consistently attract multiple offers within the first week. The inventory uptick has been modest here — only a 7% increase versus January — keeping pressure on prices.
Buyer note: Valencia is the most competitive sub-market. Come in with an underwritten pre-approval and budget for 1–3% over list price on well-located homes.
Stevenson Ranch
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sold price | $1,155,000 |
| Active listings | 41 |
| Median days on market | 19 |
| YoY price change | +2.9% |
Stevenson Ranch continues to be the highest-priced community in the SCV. With only 41 active listings — many in gated communities with HOA fees of $200–$400/month — competition is fierce. The median price crossed $1.1M for the third consecutive month.
Buyer note: Stevenson Ranch buyers need to be prepared for jumbo loan territory if purchasing above $1,089,300 (the 2026 LA County conforming limit). Jumbo qualification requires stronger credit and larger reserves.
Saugus
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sold price | $810,000 |
| Active listings | 112 |
| Median days on market | 31 |
| YoY price change | +3.8% |
Saugus saw the strongest year-over-year appreciation of any Santa Clarita sub-market this month, driven by renewed interest from buyers priced out of Valencia. The 31-day median days-on-market — highest in the SCV — gives buyers the most negotiating room here.
Buyer note: Saugus represents solid value relative to Valencia, with many of the same amenities and school quality. The extra time on market means sellers may be more open to concessions.
Canyon Country
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sold price | $728,000 |
| Active listings | 97 |
| Median days on market | 33 |
| YoY price change | +4.1% |
Canyon Country is posting the highest appreciation rate in the SCV and remains the most accessible entry point for first-time buyers. New construction in the Tesoro del Valle area is adding inventory, though those homes carry Mello-Roos of $2,400–$4,800/year.
Buyer note: Canyon Country is where the value is in 2026. Buyers who can tolerate longer commutes to LA and don't need top-rated schools (though schools are improving) will find the best price-per-square-foot here.
Newhall
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sold price | $748,000 |
| Active listings | 42 |
| Median days on market | 29 |
| YoY price change | +2.2% |
Newhall's revitalized downtown continues to attract buyers who want walkability, character, and a sense of place. Limited inventory keeps prices elevated relative to Newhall's historical discount to Valencia. The area has no Mello-Roos on most established properties.
Buyer note: Newhall is ideal for buyers who prioritize walkable lifestyle over top school rankings. Strong long-term appreciation potential as downtown development continues.
Castaic
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median sold price | $718,000 |
| Active listings | 27 |
| Median days on market | 38 |
| YoY price change | +1.8% |
Castaic has the second-lowest median price in the SCV and the longest days on market, giving buyers the most leverage. New construction communities carry Mello-Roos of $3,000–$6,000/year that adds meaningfully to the effective cost of ownership.
Buyer note: Castaic's lake lifestyle and newer construction are compelling, but run the Mello-Roos numbers carefully. A $718,000 home with $4,500/year Mello-Roos has a higher true monthly cost than a comparable $748,000 Newhall home with no Mello-Roos.
What's Moving the Market in March 2026
Spring Seasonal Demand Is Here
The annual spring buying surge is underway. Historically, Santa Clarita sees 30–40% more monthly closed sales in April–June than in January–February. Buyers who get pre-approved and start touring now will have a head start before the peak competition window.
Rate Sensitivity Remains High
The quarter-point rate improvement since February has brought a noticeable uptick in pre-approval inquiries. Buyers who were sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to improve are beginning to re-engage. If rates drop further toward 6.5%, expect a more pronounced demand surge.
CalHFA Dream For All Lottery — Watch the Dates
CalHFA has signaled that the Dream For All shared appreciation program will reopen for applications in spring 2026. In previous rounds, the lottery has filled within days and is heavily oversubscribed. If you're a first-generation homebuyer, register with CalHFA now and be ready to apply the moment the window opens.
Pelona Hills — Intracorp Homes Grand Opening March 28
The new Pelona Hills community in Sand Canyon (off Placerita Canyon Road) holds its Grand Opening on March 28, 2026. Single-family detached homes from Intracorp Homes; no Mello-Roos. Contact John Yang at (818) 445-6354 for information.
Learn more about Pelona Hills →
Buyer Strategy Guide — March 2026
If your budget is under $750,000: Canyon Country and Castaic offer the best options. Factor in Mello-Roos for newer developments. Consider the Saugus western corridors for older homes without special taxes.
If your budget is $750,000–$900,000: Saugus, Newhall, and entry-level Canyon Country are your sweet spots. You may also find value in older Valencia townhomes or entry-level single-family homes.
If your budget is $900,000–$1,100,000: Valencia and entry-level Stevenson Ranch are attainable. Focus on traditional loan products (conventional, not jumbo) — you have room before the $1,089,300 conforming limit.
If your budget is over $1,100,000: Stevenson Ranch premium homes and Valencia hillside properties are your market. Budget for jumbo financing: typically requires 20% down, 720+ credit score, and 6+ months reserves.
For first-time buyers in any price range:
- Get pre-approved before you start touring — not after
- Check DPA eligibility — you may qualify for $15K–$150K in assistance
- Factor in property taxes, HOA, and Mello-Roos when evaluating any home
- Don't over-optimize for rates — buying power today is better than hoped-for savings tomorrow
Market Outlook: What to Expect in Q2 2026
Prices: Expect 1–3% additional appreciation through June, driven by seasonal demand and still-constrained supply.
Inventory: Likely to increase 15–25% through May as seller confidence grows with spring activity. This is good for buyers — more choices without dramatically more competition.
Rates: The market is pricing in 1–2 Fed rate cuts before year-end. 30-year mortgage rates could drift toward 6.5% by Q3 if economic data cooperates. Don't count on it — but it's plausible.
Competition: Spring will be competitive in Valencia and Stevenson Ranch. Canyon Country and Castaic will remain buyer-friendly through Q2.
Resources for Active Buyers
- Calculate your buying power →
- Find your ideal neighborhood →
- Check DPA eligibility →
- First-time buyer guide →
- FHA vs. Conventional Loan →
- Understand Mello-Roos before you buy →
Data sources: SCV MLS closed sales data, public records, Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, LA County Assessor. All figures represent estimates and averages — individual properties vary. This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute real estate or financial advice.
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